Future of Horses at Steak

No, that's not a misuse of the word. Read on.

The subject of horse slaughter neatly divides the equine industry.

The first half believes in equine "right to life." Even if the horse is old and hopelessly crippled, it should be allowed to live in comfort until it dies of natural consequences.

The second half sees horses as livestock, whose ultimate end is pretty much sealed as soon as it is conceived in the womb. Although they believe in humane treatment of horses, once a horse is no longer rideable or workable (in other words, it becomes an economic liability) action is taken to stem the financial losses.

The most recent gasoline thrown on the fire of this debate is a report on the actual costs of keeping a horse alive that has outlived its usefulness. According to a report commissioned by the Animal Welfare Council, half of all horse owners in the United States have annual incomes of between $25,000 and $75,000. The average cost per year for maintenance of a horse is $2,340, not including veterinary care. Maintain a horse until its natural death costs on average $25,740 per horse, not including vet care.

They argue that banning slaughter would be a drag on the economy, not to mention an environmental hazard from unregulated horse disposal operations and other considerations.

As with so many similarly emotional issues, the truth often resides somewhere between the extremes. If someone like Bill Gates wanted to step up and offer to foot the bill to take care of every unwanted horse until its natural death, everyone would agree that would be the thing to do. Finances are limited, and they are a huge concern for horse owners who face rising costs in every direction they turn.

Also in the middle ground is the idea of horses who may not no longer be capable of earning a living, but might make an excellent trail horse for an older or younger rider -- in other words, recycling more horses rather than going straight to the "kill" option.

Wherever you stand on the issue, it seems rational to have some sort of humane outlet for horses deemed truly unwanted. And to those who say every horse has to live regardless, the question becomes: And paid for by whom?

Seems like the battle over horse slaughter pales in light of war in the Middle East, insurgency in Iraq, the high price of gasoline in the United States and the potential for ruining the economy here should be taken in perspective. Often, perspective helps everyone see the middle ground.

Head-Butting a Horse

Did you see the news story this morning about the British jockey who head-butted his horse? It was very reminiscent of the scene from the World Cup of Soccer. Big different though. This was a horse.

Now I don't know about you, but I've never even thought of head-butting a horse. I've been head-butted by a few horses in my lifetime and believe me, I wound up on the losing side of that battle. Horses have extremely hard heads.

The video of this incident showed the horse completely unphased, but I guarantee you when that jockey's helmet came in contact with that horse, he heard bells ring and saw stars! Of course, the super-sensitive English populace and I'm sure many here in the United States will be crying "abuse" for weeks to come.

I know equine abuse occurs, and it's a terrible thing when it happens. But in today's "horses are people, too" society, it seems like almost everything is defined as abuse. In some views, even riding a horse is abuse.

My theory has always been that horses are quite capable of taking care of themselves, thank you. Had this horse perceived this as abuse, he could have whirled around and planted the bottom of two large and powerful hooves in the jockey's midsection. He didn't. He just stood there with that look on his face that horses get that makes you wonder if they're thinking "what an idiot this person is."

If you see someone doing something to a horse you think might be abuse, spend some time watching horses in the wild or even a group of domesticated horses in a pasture together. What they do to each other is considerably worse than anything we as humans can inflict upon them. They kick each other. They bite each other. They charge at each other with their teeth barred.

About the worst thing I've ever done to a horse is snap him on the rear end with the end of a rope. Usually the noise a "popper" makes is more effective than any sort of actual pain you might inflict. Of course, I'm sure there are those who would report me to the ASPCA for this activity, but I've never had a horse object too terribly. In fact, when a horse knows you mean business, the hijinx often end and it's a lot easier to get down to business.

The jockey in England later admitted he made a mistake and apologized to the horse and the public. Stiff upper lip and all that, don't you know!

National Day of the Cowboy

Did you attend a National Day of the American Cowboy celebration this past weekend? Many communities held events, a number of retailers also sponsored celebrations. My wife and I attended the event at Pleasant Hills Saddle Shop in Rogers, Minn. Owner Paul "Sarge" Grossner was very pleased with the turnout and all of the attention that has been focused on all things Western.

The Pleasant Hills event featured food, music, roping clinics, old West renactments and a whopper of an apparel and tack sale with something for everyone.

This is the second year Day of the Cowboy has been commemorated but the first year where there has been some planning at the national level. From what I can see, this is an event that has the potential to be big.

The timing is perfect. Interest in all things Western is hot right now, so that makes National Day of the Cowboy a logical progression.

If you attended or sponsored an event, please send images to me at pwahl@tackntogs.com along with your thoughts on the topic and we'll publish them on the Tack 'n Togs Web site and forward them to the National Day of the Cowboy folks, as well.

Hot enough for you?

Everyone in the United States is asking and answering that question these days as a gigantic heat wave sweeps over the country. Even up on the Canadian border here in Minnesota last weekend it was hot ... very unusual.

So how does heat impact retailers in the equine trade industry? Good question but not much data on which to base an answer.

Horses can take an amazing amount of heat as long as they don't have to over-exert themselves during the worst of it. Most humans have a much harder time of it. So when the going gets hot, the "hot" go shopping, right?

I may have some observational evidence for that. Sunday on our way home from Canada we stopped in at a huge tack store about an hour from our home and the place was crawling with customers. It wasn't particularly cool, either, since their air conditioner was having a hard time keeping up.

It only goes to follow, I suppose, that if you're a cool haven for shoppers on a hot day, they'll stream in and at least spend time. Whether they buy anything is up to retailers and how you present your products and whether you offer good value.

Heat stresses everyone, and some people shop when they're under stress. Others stay at home and worry about how the heat is going to impact them.

Mostly the heat is a total groaner for those of us who ride. It's a hard habit to break. If you're accustomed to three or four two-hour rides a week and suddenly you're cut down to two 10- to 15-minute rides, you can go through withdrawal symptoms!

Above all, be safe. The heat will pass -- well for most of us anyway. I know here in Minnesota in just a matter of weeks these big white flakes will be falling out of the sky and collecting on the ground. I've come to the conclusion it's much easier to survive winter than summer when Mother Nature turns up the heat.

Trade Show Stress

One of the features on our Web sit is an "ask the editor" section. People in the equine trade industry can send us questions and we find answers or make them up (just kidding!). Recently, this question came from Julie Bruce of Bruce's Tack Box.

Hello. I'm interested on your take on the numerous markets. As I plan for the fall markets (we usually attend two - one local and one larger one farther away) I am concerned with the vendors that are split between the larger markets. Half of my usual vendors are attending Atlantic City and half are attending the Hopper Expo in Baltimore. Will I need to go to both to fulfill my market shopping list or will those other vendors just get less of my business? I try to do most of my Christmas shopping at the fall markets. What a pain and a cost my business just doesn't need right now. To make it even worse, I've had to choose between the Fort Wayne market and the new Indy market. I have yet to see a list of who is attending Fort Wayne so I chose their market for two reasons - 1 It is closer for me 2 - I decided that loyalty to that association was important to me. My questions to you are: Is there an end in sight to the market fiasco? Will the multiple markets actually hurt our industry? If this trend continues, how many markets will we need to attend for the good of our businesses?

A good question, Julie, and one that everyone seems to be asking at the moment. It's difficult to say that options are a bad thing, but there is a point of diminished returns when it comes to trade shows. Have we reached that point? Too early to say.

One things for certain, the future of any of the trade shows scheduled will be in the hands of people like yourself who choose either to attend or not to attend, as your time, budget and other considerations permit. Retailers will vote with their feet.

That's where the "end in sight" you're looking for will come. Will the multiple markets hurt the industry? If there isn't consolidation sooner rather than later, the answer is "yes." I can't conceive of another industry that's as fractured as the English sector of the equine trade industry at this point. A unifying voice is in order at this moment.

Which leads me to the American Equestrian Trade Association. At the moment, this organization looks like the best hope to bring some sense of sanity to the English trade show experience. The idea behind AETA is to hold one or perhaps two trade shows a year that would be the counterparts for the Denver and other larger Western trade shows. The concept would be similar to what the British Equestrian Trade Association uses to great success.

Here's what's most likely to happen. At some point, AETA will decide where and when it will hold its show(s) and will take the top 25 manufacturers on the English side with them. That should be a sufficient bloc to dominate the market. At some point, AETA will probably approach either Stanley Expo or Hopper Expo to form an alliance in which one of those companies would produce the AETA show to the association's wishes and standards. If no agreement is reached, AETA will most likely go it on their own, hire a trade show manager and proceed in that direction. It will be very difficult for anyone to produce another English show if and when AETA is up and running, as long as the association holds together. Eventually, the AETA show(s) should become the industry standard on the English side and whoever is in the driver's seat will have to reckon with retailers and their desires regarding trade shows.

Honestly, had any of the people now engaged in trying to produce trade shows spent a couple hours in a public meeting talking to vendors and retailers about what they wanted, it's unlikely we would be as splintered today as we are.

Best advice: Hunker down for the next six to eight months and I think you'll see a shaking out, a coming together, a meeting of the minds. To answer your questions specifically, yes, you may have to attend several more markets than you would like or think you can afford to accomplish your business goals.

The Coming Crash IV

A group of statistics that makes me believe that the popularity of all things Western might hang on a bit longer this boom-bust cycle than previous cycles is the growing number of horse owners in the United States and abroad.

Both the American Quarter Horse Association and the American Pain Horse Association, arguably the two top forces in Western riding in the United States, have seen huge increases in membership and interest over the past few years. The breed associations that represent the gaited breeds, such as Tennessee Walkers, have also seen steep increases in not only members but in interest in their shows and programs.

Part of the gaited popularity arises from the fact that the average rider today is getting older. Gaited horses do not trot, so there's no bone-jarring for those with older bones and enough aches and pains without asking for more. Heck, even miniature horse numbers are soaring!

Much of the rise in horse ownerships arises from the 40-somethings who finally have all their children out of the house and have some extra time and money to devote to a horse. For some soccer moms, the cleats and shin guards are retired in favor of a saddle and bridle. These people are well-able to afford the best for their horses. Most of them ride Western, although many also buy English attire and equipment. Their impact on the entire equine industry is immense.

If you live near any of our country's major urban areas, look for another sign of the times when it comes to horse ownership by polling boarding places located within a 25-mile radius of the city center. You'll find that not only are boarding slots hard to find, but those that exist command as much as $600 a month ... and they get it.

In the wake of the last boom-bust cycle in Western, much of what we see today wasn't present then. Horse ownership numbers were flat. Boats and other recreational items were much more in the forefront.

So what happened? Aside from the aging of America and more Americans looking for a back-to-nature slower pace of life, horses have found their way into everyday life. Look at the number of television commercials that feature horses. Look at the two major cable channels with nearly continuous programs regarding horses. Look at the popularity of rodeo. Everywhere you look, you see horses. Eventually, that has an impact on the consuming public.

If the equine industry didn't make it so hard to get into horse ownership, the numbers might even be larger than they are. If you don't think that's the case, answer this question: If someone in your community wanted to take lessons and eventually buy a horse, where would they go? Would they be welcomed? Would the lesson and training facility be a good experience for a newcomer or a nightmare?

All to often, the latter is the case. Obviously, if we're going to keep the interest in horses growing, we're going to have fix this problem ... and the sooner the better.

There are probably 100 other reasons why horses are as popular as they are today. It's an individual pleasure for each person. For me, my time with my horse is my escape from the roaring world around me. Riding through a wooded meadow on a cool summer morning is my idea of mental and physical therapy. I suspect it is for many of you, too.

The Coming Crash III

I have a number of good friends in the cattle ranching business all across the United States. When I think of equine product consumers, I always think of them first.

They're shopping patterns are traditional. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. If it's broke, fix it and make due. They can be a retailer's biggest nightmare.

However, when beef prices are good and growing conditions optimum, they aren't afraid to buy six or eight saddles at a time or new strap leather goods all the way around. That situation has led me to ask over the past year: "Is the boom cycle in beef supporting the boom cycle in Western in the United States." And more importantly, if and when the next down cycle happens in Western, will be muted if the price of cattle stays high?

There is some support for this theory. If you look at USDA statistics going back to 1996, generally believed to be the bottom of the last down cycle in Western, the price farmers received for cattle was down in the $60 a hundred-weight category. Over the next decade, with a few minor setbacks, the price has steadily risen. Today it's near the $140 a hundred-weight level, more than double.

Over the same period, the stock (no pun intended!) of Western manufacturers and retailers has also risen steadily -- with a few minor setbacks -- to the point where today most consider it to be at its zenith.

The logical conclusion: When things are good down on the ranch, things are good on Main Street.

The one massive statistic that probably shoots this entire theory to pieces is another statistic from USDA. In 1996, there were approximately 900 beef cow operations in the country. In 1995, the lastest year for which statistics are available, there were 770. Fewer operators means fewer people in need of equine items used in working ranch endeavors.

So it's probably safe to say the rising fortunes of the beef industry are a factor in the popularity of Western at the moment, but probably not the determining factor. More likely the growing number of horse owners and the increasing popularity of riding is a larger factor. We'll take a look at that phenomenon next.

The Coming Crash II

If you look carefully at the timing of the last two downturns in the Western sector of the equine industry, the timing is remarkably similar. The bottom occurred almost exactly 10 years to the month apart.

Using that as a guide, the next down cycle in Western should be right around the corner. On the other hand, so much has changed in the last 10 years, it's impossible to determine whether the cycle theory is still valid or to what extent.

For instance, 10 years the words "global economy" were hardly known. Even those who had heard the term didn't know what it meant. Today, almost everyone knows about it.

NAFTA had just been passed about the time the last down cycle occurred. No one was sure what "free trade" would mean or how it would impact such things as the sale of boots and Western hats. We know a little more today, although there are differences of opinion as to how NAFTA has impacted the equine industry. For manufacturers, the ability to bring goods into the United States in a fairly seamless process from several other countries has meant an improved bottom line. It's less clear what it has meant for consumers or the economy overall as jobs have migrated to the countries where salaries are lower and benefits are unheard of.

Another factor is the white-hot interest in Western in Europe and increasingly in the United Kingdom. As the last boom-bust cycle in Western hit, that wasn't the case. There was nowhere to go but down. Today, the industry is much better positioned for a soft landing.

Oddly, the boom in Western overseas is a grassroots phenomenon, certainly not the result of Western manufacturers in the United States have worked for decades to make their products popular in Europe or the UK. Today, the problem is convincing American companies that there's a market for their product overseas. If you chat with the retailers selling the stuff in places such as England or Holland, you'll understand quickly the depth of the demand. It might just be enough to avoid a downturn in Western completely and break the boom-bust cycle.

The Coming Crash

Over the past couple weeks, I've been helping a couple key people in the equine industry determine what's next for the Western sector. Western booms and busts in approximately 10-year cycles. Since the past couple years have been very much "boom," the smart Western folks are wondering when the "bust" will occur, how bad will it be and how can they avoid the extreme lows of previous boom-bust cycles. All good questions.

There is fairly good documentation for the last two boom-bust cycles. The first one occurred in the early 80s in the wake of the "Urban Cowboy" craze. Talk to people in our industry who were around for that time period and they'll tell you some wild stories. Shortages of just about every Western product known were common. It's a time we've never seen since nor will we, most likely.

The next boom-bust we commonly call the "Garth Brooks" phenomenon. Brooks was a mega-star in the early 90s and that black Western hat and those tight Wranglers sparked a charge in the Western industry. By 1996, the "bust" was evident. The malaise stuck around for several years and then there were a couple of "boom-let" years. Finally in the early 2000s, Western caught on fire once again.

So far, we don't really know what to call the latest boom cycle in Western. If you asked 10 people what's sparking it, you'll get 10 answers. Suffice it to say, it's obvious the cycle is stronger than outside forces.

If all goes according to Hoyle, the downturn should be evident the first quarter of 2007, and most in the industry seem to agree we're safe through the end of the year. After that, no one is willing to go out on a limb, just now.

Over the next couple days we'll take a closer look at the boom-bust cycles in Western and how they've played out, plus we'll make some bold predictions for the coming year. If you have input on this topic, please share it with us. We'd love to hear what you have to say.

Independence Day Celebration

So how was your July 4 holiday? It struck me today that Monday, July 3, was probably the least productive work day in the history of labor in the United States. I knew of only a handful of people who actually had to work. Most companies considered July 4 to be two days this year.

My wife and I traveled to North Dakota for the long weekend to spend time with my relatives. North Dakota is experiencing drought conditions. It weighed heavily on the minds of everyone we spoke to. The ground was like fine powder. No sign of rain in the forecast either.

On Monday night, we attended a performance of the Mandan Rodeo, which marked its 127th year of existance. That has to make it one of the oldest rodeos in the world, if not the oldest.

The July 4 holiday is commonly referred to as "cowboy Christmas" because a competitor can earn a year's worth of winnings in a few days if you play your cards right. What that means more often than not today is that unless you're one of the big rodeos offering big money, those attending your rodeo are usually locals and certainly not the PRCA's star performers -- competitors or bucking stock.

That was the first time I'd ever seen a saddle bronc competitor earn a score of 42. I thought maybe they'd forgotten to add in the score for the bronc and that it should have been a 72, but that wasn't the case.

The level of competition certainly didn't dampen the spirit of the rodeo-goers. The arena was packed with standing-room-only crowds. Everyone seemed to be having a great time. It's kind of hard to tell with North Dakota folks sometimes. They don't smile a lot and most consider actually laughing out loud in public to be rather inconsiderate.

That makes the presentation of a rodeo comedy contract act rather difficult, but Gizmo McCracken gave it his best. The announcer was a newbie for this rodeo and it seemed perhaps in the industry. Let's just say he has a lot to learn about the craft of rodeo announcing.

The weather couldn't have been more perfect, although a water truck would have helped out a great deal. The dust levels were tremendous. A cowboy walking across the grounds lift his own trail of dust in his wake.

Alas, all good things must come to an end and Tuesday it was back home and this morning the alarm went off and it was back to work.

So how were things around your part of the world this July 4 holiday? Let's hear about it.