Weather and It's Impact on Retailing

One of the top concerns retailers gathered for the AETA trade show expressed was the unseasonable weather most of the country appears to be having. For many of them, the prolonged summer and fall meant sparse blanket sales and outerwear that sat and gathered dust.

The upside, of course, is that riders have been able to ride well into the winter because of the warmer than normal temperatures, which means the demand for other riding accessories held up in a season when they normally disappear.

Most retailers were in a conundrum because they were at the trade show trying to buy for the year ahead and wondering, "is this weird weather now normal or is this a fluke?" The answer determines how you buy and potentially your success as a retailer.

There's a lot of talk right now about global warming. Actually, if you were in Minnesota or most of the upper part of the United States today, you wouldn't believe in global warming -- it's darn cold! But there's no denying that the weather patterns have changed somewhat.

A number of people look at the changes and say that it's simply a matter of weather patterns mapped over a long period of time. We have colder periods and warmer periods and that's natural and okay. A more convinced environmentalist would say the pattern is toward warmer and warmer until the Polar Ice Cap melts and we're all living in the new Atlantis.

Neither argument does much for the predicament of retailers in the equine industry who don't know whether to zig or to zag when it comes to buying. Cut down on outerwear and next year is frigid, you'll be caught with your pants down (well not literally!). Buy the same amount of outerwear and hope the weather turns perverse once again ... that's also a risky strategy.

The weather has introduced yet another element of surprise for retailers. Farmers have been contending with it for years. Having Mother Nature as a partner in your retail business probably isn't what any of us wanted, but it's a fact of life.

Maybe it's time to get out the Old Farmer's Almanac.

Oh that Uncle Jimmy

One of the features of the AETA trade show was an awards competition for the most innovative products. The winner and by far the product that drew the most attention was called "Uncle Jimmy's Hanging Balls" treat.

The ball -- consisting of a variety of grains, molasses and other ingredients -- is approximately 5.5 inches in diameter and weights more than three pounds. It's tied from above in a horse's stall (thus the name "hanging balls"). It's a handy way to fight boredom for stalled horses, as long as you don't mind your horse eating sugar, corn syrup, molasses and other sweet ingredients.

Perhaps the most innovative thing about the hanging balls isn't the balls themselves, but the attention-getting name that's been applied to them. If you have a mind that tends toward the gutter, you might be thinking something you probably shouldn't be thinking by now.

In any event, there was no way to miss the product at the Expo.

The Clip, developed by a fellow Minnesotan, also garnered a lot of attention. It's a device that securely fastens a horse, even one determined to break free. It also received an innovation award.

We're attempting to locate a list of all the winners and will bring that to you when we have it.

Speaking of innovations, I was somewhat dismayed to see so many pink products at the expo. I thought pink was becoming a thing of the past. Apparently, we have at least one more season to deal with pink. Then can we bury it forever?

First Expo One for the Books

The first-ever American Equestrian Tack and Apparel Expo ended yesterday with most participants reporting good sales, a good time and a good feeling about the market.

Like any trade show held for the first time in a new venue, there were small glitches that will need attention prior to the next expo. There were also a lot of questions about the American Equestrian Trade Association and its future. Some answers are forthcoming on that topic. Stay tuned.

For me, the highlights were the numbers of both vendors and retailers -- the largest we've seen in a while -- and the professional manner in which the trade show was conducted.

Organizer Jim Herbert and all of the staff that worked with him did a great job of keeping things moving and keeping everyone happy. Just before leaving Richmond yesterday, Jim told me that 80 percent of the booths space reserved for this trade show has already been booked for August.

One of the most interesting complaints I heard was that the aisles weren't bowling alley style -- in other words, running the entire length of the building. Some larger booths interspersed broke up the runway flow, which I actually thought was kind of a nice touch. From the comments, that obviously wasn't the case.

If you attended the show and have a comment -- positive or negative -- please feel free to email me with your information at pwahl@tackntogs.com. I am most interested in hearing what you have to say.

We'll be posting images and other information on our Web site throughout the week so point your browser to www.tackntogs.com for more information.

Friday, it's off to Indianapolis for the Hopper Indy Market.

Learning, shopping and having fun

A group of us were sitting around over dinner one night during the AETA Expo and the question was asked: "What do you expect from a trade show?" Several of us answered hits way: "It should be fun."

Now no one would discount that there should be plenty of vendors and plenty of buyers first and foremost, but the more we thought about it, the more we realized that fun plays into it no matter how you look at it.

The AETA Expo has had its share of fun, in addition to buying and selling, learning and eating and visiting and networking.

Trade shows are work -- for everyone. So if you can have a bit of fun to go along with the work, it makes the work seem less onerous.

It has been interesting to watch the equine trade industry redefine what's important about a trade show over the past 18 months or so. For some, the new standard is how the show "feels." For others, it has become the quality of the food. Sometimes selling and buying are near the bottom of some people's list.

Like so many things in life, the answer is probably somewhere in the middle. While everyone wants to do well at a trade show, most would like to have a bit of fun as well -- or at least have the opportunity to do that.

The proliferation of great restaurants around Richmond has offered the venue for quite a bit of fun during the off-hours.

Hopefully, when the show closes, everyone who attended will lay claim to at least a tad of fun -- and a fist full of success in the selling and buying department, too.

Through these doors today walked buyers from across the United States, part of the American Equestrian Tack and Apparel Expo in Richmond, Va. The first-ever equine trade show at the Greater Richmond Convention Center had welcomed about 500 buyers by 4 p.m. on the opening day, according to spokesman and organizer Jim Herbert.

Other highlights of the day included a phenomenal retailer training program, presented by professors from Virginia Commonwealth University.

Today's topics included retailer relationships with vendors, ten myths of retail management and ownership, branding and planning inventory the right way. Several of the sessions were filled to capacity.

Three Retailer of Excellence presentations were also part of the day's lineup of educational programming. The sessions were well-received with lots of questions for the presenting retailers.


Rosalie Jackson Regni, assistant professor, department of fashion at VCU, presented her educational session, 10 Myths of Retail Management and Ownership.

1. Anyone with a good idea can get money to start or grow a business.
2. Competitors are the enemy.
3. If my product or service is desirable to customers, then "extra-mile service" is not necessary.
4. My vendors/suppliers are there to service me and make me happy. It doesn't matter how I treat them.
5. After my business is successful I can sit back, relax and take lots of vacations.
6. After I complete my business plan and secure the funds to open or grow my business, I can just put it away in the archives.
7. Making sales is the most important function of the business.
8. I already know enough about my product and running a business. I don't have time to pursue more knowledge.
9. Once I have established a product selection that my customers like, there is no need to change it.
10. If my business takes off right away, it's time to expand or open a branch store in another location.

Expo Ready to Go

Tomorrow morning at 9 a.m., the doors swing open on the first-ever American Equestrian Tack and Apparel Expo at the Greater Richmond Convention Center.

Today was setup day with everyone rushing to put the finishing touches on their presentation. From the early look at things, it appears the vendors for this trade show went all out for the event. Even the small booth vendors added a bit of flair to their presentation.

Since this is the first Expo, there will be a lot of evaluating of what works and what doesn't work, trade-show speaking. The fall event will obviously benefit from that experience.

The wind is blowing and the air is brisk. This afternoon Richmond experienced what we call in Minnesota a "snow burst." The flakes were as big as baseballs. The entire episode lasted about 10 minutes and by the time it was over, all traces of snow had melted.

Several hotel blocks Expo organizers contracted were filled as of today and other blocks were being negotiated. That's being interpreted as a good sign by most.

Tomorrow we'll have a better feel for numbers, attendance and that sort of thing.

If you're not able to attend the Expo, come back each day for an update here.

Next Stop, RIchmond

We knew it couldn't last forever. The gentle warm breezes of Orlando are behind us and now it's on to the next stop in the Equine Trade Show Tour, AETA Richmond. It sounds like the weather will be invigorating, even for someone from Minnesota.

According to the AETA Web site, more than 200 vendors are signed up and nearly 400 retailers are preregistered. If you looked at that list and said to yourself, "some of those retailers aren't retailers," you are quite perceptive. When this round of trade shows is over we're going to talk at length about the responsibility to get it right on Web sites produced by trade show organizers. In some cases, you have to be a Philadelphia lawyer to figure out exactly what the names and numbers mean.

It dawned on me that if I ever decided I really despised one of the trade show organizers in our industry and wanted to shut him down, I'd simply start the rumor that he was paying retailers to come to his show. That little bit of gossip hit the Orlando trade show floor on Saturday and by the Monday's close, it had become a burning crackling cauldron. The vendom that accompanies some of these tirades is beyond comprehension. Let's get the facts first and then see who needs to be skewered and barbecued.

If you aren't able to make to Richmond, stop back here each of the next few days for an update and perhaps an image or two.

Great Birthday

Over the past five years of covering trade shows in the equine industry, I've often been on the road on my birthday (today!). This year I was able to have my wife along for the occasion. We celebrated at the Hopper Orlando Market this year.

To my surprise, several friends bribed the band performing for the market party to sing "Happy Birthday" to me. It was very special and a good time.

The market party capped the second day of the market, which will no doubt go down in history as the trade show in our industry with the most perfect weather.

All those people who spent years pushing Orlando as a location when we were freezing in the snow and ice in Pennsylvania were right. If you were one of those and you didn't come down for this trade show, shame on you!

Later this week the traveling trade show circuit move to Richmond. We'll be reporting in from the AETA Expo beginning on Wednesday.

Florida Retailers Lovin' It

Another beautiful day dawned over Orlando today as the Hopper Expo Orlando Trade Show got underway. About 64 booths representing nearly 120 lines were on hand.

A number of companies apparently made last-minute decisions to attend as they were not listed in the market book. And a few listed in the book didn't make it to Orlando.

Things shifted into high gear at about mid-morning and action was strong until mid-afternoon. Buyers from about 50 to 75 retail stores were on hand today, the majority of them from around the Orlando area.

That statistic brought one vendor express his opinion that the equine trade industry -- except from Denver -- is a series of regional markets with no major national market on the East Coast.

Several first-time vendors said they were pleased with their experience exhibiting in Orlando, although admitidly they didn't have anything to compare it to. Western products vendors appeared to have the edge on English vendors at day's end today, perhaps because there were considerably fewer of them. English vendors outnumber Western vendors by about five to one.

Tomorrow, the market party is planned in the evening and promises to be quite a production. We hope to bring you some images of the party in the next blog entry.

On to Orlando

Even if you're not a fan of glitz and tourist traps, Disney and Universal and at least one money pit per block, you have to admit -- Orlando has amazing weather.

We flew in at noon today for the Orlando Hopper Market and were greeted with bright sunshine and temperatures hovering near 80 degrees. There was a slight breeze and the air smelled fresh and invigorating.

If you could somehow substract the traffic, you would probably have the best place in the United States to live.

For years, those of us who suffered through January in eastern Pennsylvania wondered by someone couldn't come up with a trade show in Orlando in January. Well, now someone has. Kent Hopper has spent a great deal of time planning this market. Tomorrow, we will find out whether any of those people who were thinking Orlando took action to be here.

The Orange County Convention Center is an incredibly large building and it took us several infomation stops to track down the Hopper market in the North Concourse. The venue is beautiful and surrounded by natural beauty to spare. Green grass, lakes, blue skies ... everywhere you look it's like a Disney movie.

Tomorrow we'll take some head counts and photos to post here. Stay tuned.

Denver Wrap

Just a few final notes on the Denver Market before I leave tomorrow for Orlando. I'll be posting regular updates from that market, as well as AETA Expo the following week. Come along for the ride!

Market organizers can't do anything about the weather. Over the years, we've had some really interesting weather during trade show season. When the old KOP Market was still going, snow was a disaster. A good number of those attending drove in from across the Eastern Seaboard. Atlantic City had a blizzard one year during trade show season.

The three snowstorms that had hit Denver prior to the market dates probably didn't help matters when it came to people apprehensive about attending. The trade show organizers also have no control over how local authorities deal with snow either.

We live in a state that is considered the gold standard for snow removal -- Minnesota. When the first flake flies, someone's out there with a plow moving it off the streets -- not just the freeways, the side streets, as well.

Imagine my dismay to find piles and drives of snow on the freeways in Denver and the side streets looking more like ski slopes. Not that big of a problem for someone who grew up in the stuff and knows how to drive in snow and ice. Big problem for people come from parts of the country where snow and ice on the roads are rare.

Another disappointment -- again something the trade show organizers can do nothing about -- was the way the hotel where we stayed maintained its property. The parking lot was just barely cleared so parking was an adventure. The sidewalks were not shoveled at all so you walked in the already narrowed roadway. Most hotels in Minnesota would have the sidewalks down to the cement and coated with salt to make sure they stayed that way. It seems like the hospitable thing to do.

My nomination for the most stupid retailers on earth goes to the stores at Denver International Airport. I arrived for my flight home with almost no voice and considerable congestion, nose-blowing and everything else that accompanies a cold. It was impossible to buy tissues in the Denver Airport. They were all out!

I searched all through the stores in the area where my flight was to leave, finally boarded the train and went to a different concourse and searched there. All the store employees could say was "we're out."

At the height of the cold season with some of coldest weather of the winter, these retailers weren't sharp enough to make sure they didn't run out of facial tissues. I know for sure if I had brought along a couple cases from a warehouse store, I could have sold them for $2 a tissue! Talk about your missed opportunities.

Now, onward to warmer digs and hopefully the full restoration of my voice. I also wanted to take a moment to thank everyone at the Denver Market who provided me with a pethora of things to suck on to try to make my throat better and who offered me everything from cough syrup to Jim Beam! I can't think of anything more miserable than for a trade magazine editor to have no voice at the industry's largest and most prestigious trade show!

More Screens in Use

The recently concluded Denver Market for January 2007 was the first in which large-screen high-definition television played an important role in booths and displays. A number of companies were using them to showcase products and attract attention.

Equibrand and Kensington (left and right above, respectively) made good use of the technology. Other screens were dotted around the market, including the permanent show room of Sidran on the Fourth Floor of the Mart Building.

Over the years, the migration away from a simple stall with products at American trade shows has been noticeable. Booths (or stands as they call them) at the overseas trade show are much more sophisticated. Since most of those vendors attend only one trade show a year, they tend to go big.

In the United States, with everyone going to several trade shows each year, the booth has to be more portable.

We also noticed a trend toward better use of lighting this year at a number of booths. Lighting is very important when a retailer is attempting to evaluate a product. In some areas of the Denver Merchandise Mart, there's sufficient ambient light to allow everything to be seen clearly. Other parts are more dungeon-like and require heavy illumination.

Those scrolling banner units were also popular this trade show.

If you'd like to see more scenes from the market, visit our Web site www.tackntogs.com and click on the video montage at the top of the home page.

Denver Market The Fashion Scene

The annual fashion show at the WESA Denver Market is one of the highlights of the four-day run of the market. It seemed that the fashions shown this year were a bit more muted than in previous years. Nothing gawdy, lots of earth tones and tasteful bling.

One of the more unusual new products was presented by The Montana Ride Apparel Company of Denver, which is offering a line of men's underwear with a Western flair. The company is also doing boot socks adn t-shirts.

The underwear is unusual in that it features Sweet Ride™ anti-microbial treatment. The fabrics are bonded with silver which releases silver ions that destroy over 90% of the bacteria that cause odors. It also features a Western retro-styled embroidered waistband, along with flat-sewn seams and no sewn tags.

David Sorg, president of Montana Ride, told me he got the idea when he was shopping his local Western store and thought he'd top off his purchases with underwear and t-shirts. The store had none. He soon discovered very few equine retailers carried these items and decided to fill the niche.

These are not your father's underwear, t-shirts and socks. A lot of thought and innovation has gone into them. The socks are the same sock our soldiers in Iraq are wearing today.

When you think about it, the products Sorg is offering make a lot of sense. His line will probably be slightly more expensive than what guys would pay for BVD or similar big-market skivvies, but from everything I can tell, they should be worth it. David's Web site is www.montanaride.com.

If you'd like to see more images from the Denver Market, please visit www.tackntogs.com.

Denver, weather or not

The weather was the star of the show at the Denver Market, which began Friday. Snow, ice and frigid temps were the order of the day. Worries about slippery roads and whether the airport would close (again!) kept minds away from shopping some of the time.

It's impossible to term WESA's Denver Market anything but a success, even with awful weather, simply because of its size and scope. Business through Sunday afternoon did seem a bit slower than last year, but the previous two or three markets have been near-record events.

Mother Nature has been rocking Denver's world for several weeks. Snowfall is being measured in feet, rather than inches. Temperatures during the trade show were more than 40 degrees below normal.

Denver Market seems to have benefitted from the proliferation of markets on the East Coast and the resulting confusion. A number of vendors and retailers said this would be the only market they would attend this year.

Throughout the rest of the week, we'll be sharing images and reports from the market here and on our Web site www.tackntogs.com.

Denver, For Starters

Today was setup day at the Denver WESA Market. Tomorrow morning, selling begins in earnest all across the Denver Merchandise Mart.

The snarky weather Denver has been having may be keeping a few of the less hardy away, but if you're in the equine trade industry (especially on the Western side), you have to suck it up and come.

Tonight we're receiving a rain/snow mix that has resulted in some fairly slick roads and some heavy traffic.

In just the few hours I spent at the mart today, I already have found several new vendors I have not seen anywhere before at a trade show. That's always a good sign.

Tomorrow night is the big fashion show and gala, celebrating the 85th year of the market. That should be quite an event. Each market it seems the list of things to do gets a little longer.

If you're reading this and thinking about coming, head on down! If you absolutely can't make it, follow the action here on this blog and on our Web site www.tackntogs.com.

Having My Head Examined

One of the favorite things about my job as editor of Tack 'n Togs Magazine is getting out to spend time with equine retailers. I always come back energized and revitalized. On a recent visit to Ace Tack in Cambridge, Minn., I had my head examined.

Now mind you, many people have been telling me for years, "You ought to have your head examined." So I finally decided to take their advice.

Actually, the examination was part of a hat-fitting experience provided by Ace staffer Amanda Adams. The device she's using draws an outline of your head, from which a hat that fits perfectly can be selected. The device is part of the store's cooperative hat program with Ritch Rand of Rand Hats in Billings, Mont.

The fitter looks for all the world like some old-world torture device, but the process was actually quite painless.

You will be able to read more about Ace Tack in February edition of Tack 'n Togs.

Turn on the Lights

My friend Kelley Robertson sends me an occasional thought on retail. I thought I'd share his latest insight with you. If you'd like to learn more aout Kelley, visit his Web site www.kelleyrobertson.com.

+++++

My wife and I were shopping for a new lighting fixture to hang above our dining room table. We wanted something relatively contemporary, and in our quest, we visited over a dozen stores in search of the perfect light.

This experience uncovered a wide variety of mistakes that are costing retailers big money in the form of lost sales. Here's an example of some of the situations we have encountered.

1. We walked into one store early in the evening and were greeted with a heavy rock station blasting over the speakers. Although I like rock music, it is definitely NOT appropriate for a retail environment unless you are selling music, extreme sporting goods, or cater directly to a demographic that appreciates this type of music. Based on the selection of product on display, I suspect this lighting store's target market is someone between the ages of 35-70. This means their music choice was a huge blunder, one that could easily have been avoided.

2. Another store promised the region's largest selection of lighting fixtures which definitely intrigued us. We dropped by the store, and indeed, they did have a fantastic selection of lights, including several that appealed to our individual taste. However, very few of the lights were operable which meant we couldn't see what they looked like when lit. Call me silly but when I buy a lighting fixture I expect to be able to turn it on so I can see exactly how it looks when it is lit. Plus, the apparent owner of the store didn’t bother to leave the comfort of the counter and make any attempt to help us.

3. We ventured into another store that had a very good selection of lighting fixtures. We were looking at one in particular and there was an employee standing nearby as we considered it. She mumbled something to us about the light—I guess to help us—but what she said was incomprehensible and she didn’t stick around long enough for us to clarify what she had said. Instead, after making her comment she left us to retreat behind the sales counter.In the same store, they had a designated sales person roaming the floor but at no time did he approach us even though he had overheard us tell another employee what we were looking for.

4. The website of store number four appealed to my wife for a variety of reasons and it sounded like this might be the place we might find our ideal fixture. However, as soon as we opened the door we we were assulted by the smell of stale cigarette smoke. In fact, the store smelled like an old gentlemen’s club, and as non-smokers, this definitely turned us off. This store had also given us the impression on their website that they had an extremely large selection of contemporary fixtures but their actual selection did not match their advertising. Although there were a few wall hangings and paintings that were attractive, we did not want to bring home the smell of stale smoke, so we left. Oh, did I mention that we were greeted by a small dog who barked at us the entire time we were in the store.

5. We went into another store and noticed several employees standing behind the sales counter, chatting with each other. We wandered around the store and looked at lighting fixtures for approximately seven to ten minutes but at no time did any of these employees make an attempt to assist us. I guess they figured that if we needed help we would ask for it. I can picture their boss questioning them the next day about the lack of sales and can hear them saying, “Oh, it was really quiet last night, we didn’t have anyone in the store.”

I could keep going but I think you get the picture. Each of these retailers made some type of blunder that cost them potential sales and profits. What is extremely unfortunate, is the fact that they probably don't even realize they made these mistakes or how money it cost them.

Many of these mistakes also apply to people who sell products and services to businesses. What impression are you making with your customers? Are you fully prepared for your sales calls and presentations? Are other people on your team costing you sales? Are you being proactive in helping your customers make an educated buying decision? Are you using terminology that your customer understands?Remember, everything you say and do influences your customer’s decision to buy from you or one of your competitors. Small mistakes can cost you big money.

They're Flocking to Denver

This past weekend, two good friends of ours who are Western retailers in The Netherlands stopped off at out house in Minnesota on their way to the Denver Market. Evelien and Martin operate a mobile unit that travels five countries and also have a brick-and-mortar store in the small community of Rheden, near Arnam. This will be their fifth year attending the Denver Market. This year, they brought five other Dutch parties with them. How's that for word of mouth?!?

We had a great time showing them around the Minneapolis area, including the ultimate shrine to retailing, the Mall of America. We also visited Cabela's and did quite a bit of eating and just sitting around drinking coffee and talking.

I always chuckle to myself when a retailer in the United States tells me a particularly trade show is "too far" to travel. Martin and Evelien ordinarily travel from their home in Velp by train to Amsterdam, then board a flight and spend nine hours flying to Chicago, transfer to another flight and head for Denver. Most everyone in the United States has a direct flight into Denver, and the longest anyone flies is probably three hours.

We also scoped out several Western stores in the Minneapolis area. It was most interesting for Evelien and Martin to see what is sold in our shops, compare prices and customer service. They made many mental notes for future reference.

Their days will be filled with activity between now and the time the Denver Market ends. They always take many good memories -- and quite a bit of American product -- home with them.

If you'd like to visit their store, point your browser to www.euro-horse.nl.

Lone Cowboy Retailers

A retailer in Europe contacted me a few weeks back to get my opinion on a business opportunity he was contemplating. His equine retail business had been contacted by a franchise that wanted him to sign up with them. From what I could tell, it was somewhat similar to a True Value Hardware sort of proposal.

He asked me what the experience had been in the United States with franchising in the equine retail trade sector. I chuckled to myself as I read his email. It's been tried in a number of different ways at different times and hasn't worked all that well.

After I responded to him, I began thinking about why retailers in our industry are so doggone independent. I concluded it goes all the way back to the early days of equine retailing. Merchants (as they were often called) were fiercely independent. There weren't a lot of fall-back strategies. You either made it on your own, or you went down the tubes.

Fast forward 200 years or so and you'll find the mindset hasn't changed all that much. While we have some multi-store chains in our industry, the bulk of the retailers -- both English and Western -- are mom and pop businesses that cherish their independence and autonomy.

In the past few years, organizations such as Purina with its Country Store franchises, have made some inroads into the industry. They have even established their own trade shows primarily for franchise owners. As the challenges facing equine retailers grows, the interest in franchising will probably expand.

But it appears unlikely that the equine retail business will go the direction of the sporting goods industry, for instance, where independents have rapidly been replaced with large corporate ownerships. Now larger corporations are gobbling up smallers ones and finding a sporting goods store that isn't a cookie-cutter version is becoming more difficult. The products are the same, the prices are the same, the service is the same (usually poor). Certainly not the intended impact, but the facts nonetheless.

Unquestionably, the job of vendors and others in our industry would be made much simpler were there fewer owners to have to deal with in favor of a handful of corporate buyers who shop for hundreds of stores. But the plethora of personalities and approaches to equine retail are what keeps the industry vibrant. Not necessarily the most profitable model, but certainly the most fun to be a part of!

Small Business Survivors

In the process of researching a story for the February issue of Tack 'n Togs Magazine, I came across some interesting statistics on small business survival rates.

I remember hearing for as long as I can remember from the Small Business Administration that 50 percent of businesses fail in their first year and 95 percent fail within five years. I always thought that was a bit depressing. Who would want to go into business knowing that?

Sometimes I think it was a method for scaring potential business owners into sharpening up their act before committing. That's probably not a bad thing.

Anyway, it seems the SBA has had a bit of a change of heart. Their latest disclaimer is that two-thirds of new businesses survive at least two years and 44 percent survive at least four years. Part of that recalculation may be the rise in popularity of Internet companies, which require far less investment capital than most brick-and-mortar operations.

The National Federation of Independent Businesses has also chimed in with their take on the topic. NFIB says only 39 percent of businesses in the United States are profitable. Another 30 percent break even and the other 30 percent lose money. One percent of business owners didn't know if they were profitable or not.

Among the top reasons why businesses fail today:

Business was started for the wrong reason. How many times have we heard from retailers in the equine industry that they started their business because they love horseback riding? Most retailers will tell you that unless it's retail and selling you enjoy, don't take the plunge.

Poor management. There's so much more to management today than there was even a decade ago. The primary qualification for a manager today is that he or she must know how to motivate young workers. Good luck with that.

Undercapitalization. Not enough money to keep the lights on until the business becomes profitable.

Lack of planning. It's still true that if you fail to plan, you plan to fail.

No Web site. If you have a business today, you need an online presence. It's become the equivalent of a calling card 20 years ago.

Failure to establish a niche. You can't fight Wal-Mart. You have to find a way to offer the products and services the mega-giant retailer can't offer.

Failure to market. Self-explanatory.

Welcome to 2007

Happy New Year! I hope you had a wonderful holiday season and are rested and ready for a challenging and busy 2007.

Our thoughts go out to equine retailers in two areas of the country where doing business has been tough. Those in the Denver area and large parts of Colorado and other Western states had their holiday shopping period interrupted by major snow storm. You can't shop if you can't get to the stores.

The scenes from Colorado are absolutely amazing. When snow falls in those amounts, it's very difficult to do anything but sit at home in front of the fire.

In Florida, retailers are sweating out cases of equine herpes virus type 1. It is the talk of the town in Ocala and Wellington, where the cases were discovered.

Quarantines have been set up. The financial impact will come if EHV-1 isn't able to be controlled by the time the show circuit begins in Florida. Canceling even one major show could be a huge blow to retailers in the area. The U.S. Government and a variety of horse organizations are working on the issue.

For much of the rest of the country, it appears the holiday shopping season was on average just a tiny bit above last year. We'll be conducting a survey of retailers by email later this week and will present the results next week.